Student Loan Debt Reached All Time High of$1,521,019,350,000in Q1 of 2018

Student Loan Debt Reached All Time High of $1,521,019,350,000 (more than 1.5 Trillion dollars)  in Q1 of 2018. Consequently, outstanding student debt currently exceeds auto loan debt ($1.1 trillion) and credit card debt ($977 billion). Considering that 42% of people who've gone to college took out debt, this number has high significance on the future of our economy and the future welfare of young families. According to the College Board, "In 2015-16, the 60% of bachelor’s degree recipients from public and private nonprofit institutions who borrowed graduated with an average of $28,400 in debt"

A recent FRB Board of Governors (FRB-BOG) report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, published in May 2018 informs us about the student debt situation:

Over half of college attendees under age 30 took on some debt to pay for their education. Most borrowers are current on their payments or have successfully paid off their loans, although those who failed to complete a degree and those who attended for-profit institutions are more likely to have fallen behind on their payments. • Among those making payments on their student loans, the typical monthly payment is between $200 and $300 per month. • Nearly one-fourth of borrowers who went to forprofit schools are behind on their loan payments, versus less than one-tenth of borrowers who went to public or private not-for-profit institutions.

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As the table below shows, many families have taken debt to finance education of their children and/or grandchildren. This creates a "spillover effect" on debt ownership that continues to burden older adults, even after their offspring have become independent adults.

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Here are some interesting anecdotes quoted from the same FRB-BOG report:

• Nearly 25 percent of young adults under age 30, and 10 percent of all adults, receive some form of financial support from someone living outside their home.
• Four in 10 adults, if faced with an unexpected expense of $400, would either not be able to cover it or would cover it by selling something or borrowing money. This is an improvement from half of adults in 2013 being ill-prepared for such an expense
• Over one-fifth of adults are not able to pay all of their current month’s bills in full.
• Over one-fourth of adults skipped necessary medical care in 2017 due to being unable to afford the cost
• Nearly half of adults age 22 and older currently live within 10 miles of where they lived in high school, but those who have moved farther from home are more likely to be satisfied with the overall quality of their neighborhood.
• Out-of-pocket spending for health care is a common unexpected expense that can be a substantial hardship for those without a financial cushion. As with the small financial setbacks discussed above, many adults are not financially prepared for health-related costs. During 2017, over one-fifth of adults had major, unexpected medical bills to pay, with a median expense of $1,200. Among those with medical expenses, 37 percent have unpaid debt from those bills. In addition to the financial strain of additional debt, over one-quarter of adults went without some form of medical care due to an inability to pay.
• Those with less income are more likely than others to forgo medical care due to cost. Among those with family income less than $40,000, 39 percent went without some medical treatment in 2017. This share falls to 25 percent of those with incomes between $40,000 and $100,000 and 9 percent of those making over $100,000.
• Over the past several decades, the rate at which Americans move—both short distances within states and longer distances across the country—has steadily fallen. This reduction in geographic mobility also fits within a pattern of less job switching, more generally, or reduced labor market fluidity.

I highly recommend reading the full FRB-BOG report for those of you who are concerned about the future of our economy and the welfare of our general population.

All the best,

--Dr.Flywheel

References:

• Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, May 2018 30 / 66
• College Board - Trends in Higher Education

The Federal Government is Investigating Intel Corp. for Age Discrimination Violations

Recently published articles in the Wall Street Journal and the Oregonian web site, report that the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) is conducting an expanded class-level investigation regarding age discrimination complaints that have been filed with the EEOC against Intel Corp.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) was the first news organization to report about the ongoing investigation in an article written by Georgia Wells, entitled: Intel Faces Age-Discrimination Claims. The WSJ article mentions that multiple complaints have been filed with the EEOC in conjunction with several rounds of massive employee layoffs over the last three years. The fact that the EEOC would continue an investigation almost three years after a reported violation indicates that the reported allegations are substantial, in spite of Intel Corp. denial of the charges.

The Oregonian news organization expands the coverage on the subject matter in an article written by Mike Rogoway entitled: Intel under investigation for alleged age discrimination. Rogoway, who covered the Intel Corp. massive employee layoffs back in 2015 and 2016 also provided statistical charts showing a clear correlation between an employee age and their odds of being selected for layoff. In this recent article, Rogoway provides a copy of a previously published chart from 2016, demonstrating the very clear age discrimination factor in the 2016 layoffs. Similar charts are available for the 2015 layoffs.

Intel Corp. 2015 Layoffs (click on image to enlarge)

Intel 2016 Layoffs (click on image to enlarge)

Publicly available information also demonstrates that while Intel Corp. was laying off thousands of its current employees, the company was actually acquiring new employees by the thousands. Many of these employees came in via Intel corp. sponsorship of H1B visas, H4 spousal work visas, "Green Card" sponsorship and F1 to OPT work permits. All of these additions to the workforce involve importation of foreign workers who are at the mercy of Intel Corp. for continued stay and employment in the U.S. In other words, Intel Corp. was actively replacing older workers with imported slave labor.

Intel Corp. Number of employees from Annual Report

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As can be seen from the above information, taken from the Intel Corp. 2016 Annual Report, The number of employees reported at the end of 2015 was 107,300, or about 600 more employees then reported in the previous year. However, since about 1200 employees were laid off mid-year, in July 2015, the the end-of-year number shown in the Annual Report actually represents a gain of 1800 employees relative to the previous year. This gain of 1800 new employees acquired before 2015 year end, contradicts Intel CEO's announcement to employees that the July 2015 were necessary to save on expenses "due to forecast of flat revenue"! Throwing experienced (and older) employees off the bus in order to replace them with cheaper newcomers, is the more likely explanation.

Similarly, in 2016, Intel Corp. laid off about 12,000 employees, yet the difference between the numbers reported for the end of 2016 are 106,00, thereby reflecting an effective gain of 10,700 employees  (106,000 - (107,300 - 12,000)) = 10,700.

Where did Intel Corp. acquire the replacement employees? According to a recently published Pew Research Center report: "By the end of the 2004-2016 period,  there were a total of 1,474,000 OPT approvals and 1,473,000 initial H-1B visa approvals".

Layoffs of older U.S. citizen employees not only manifests employment costs savings due their higher salaries, but also cuts on the cost of medical insurance expenses for a self insured company like Intel Corp. It is taken for granted that medical insurance costs tend to rise with the age of older employees and their dependents. If induction into employment of almost 3 million imported slave laborers in the high tech sector is not a significant economic factor in this lucrative sector of the U.S. labor market, what is? 

Intel Corp. attitude towards lowering the cost of labor led company management to commit law violations by conspiring, along with Apple, Adobe and Google to halt competition for employee recruitment in the Bay area and by doing so curbing potential employee pay escalation. The company was engaged in this practice for over a decade since 2001. Court records show that Intel Corp. was forced to settle its ill behavior with its employees, following a court ruling in 2013 (see United States District Court of Southern California - San Jose, Case No. 11-CV-02509-LHK).

Taking the significant risk of engaging in an anti-competitive illegal activity is a clear indication of the high priority that  company executives and the board of directors gave to curbing payroll costs. Clearly, Intel Corp. never refrained from its quest to curb employee compensation and was looking for every avenue to achieve its goals. The evidence points to systemic changes in the company's HR practices, enacted by company executives to get rid of older workers and replace them with cheaper workers. The 2015 layoffs, in which about 1200 employees lost their jobs, seem to be a small scale "experiment" that was meant to serve as a learning tool for company executives before executing the "magnum opus", the massive layoffs of 2016.

While Intel Corp. is not the only company to utilize the F1 to OPT loophole to circumvent the H1B visa quotas, utilization of such loophole is certainly one of the tools that the company utilizes to recruit cheap, captive workers. Public records show that Intel Corp. was the number one company to sponsor F1 to OPT foreign worker visas, with twice as many records registered as Microsoft corp. (see chart below).

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Both the WSJ and the Oregonian articles provide new exposure to issues that we have been covering in this web site for the last two years. We encourage our readers to refer to several of our previously published articles, including:

• Useful diagrams for explaining Intel Corp selection of employees for termination in 2015 and 2016
• The Cheap Labor Loophole - OPT is the Name of the Game
• Open Letter to Rep. Susan Bonamici
• Investigation Reveals Silicon Valley’s Abuse of Immigrant Tech Workers
• Intel Corp. Sponsored 10,168 H1B Visas In 2017
• Coal Miners, H1B Visa, George Orwell and Alternative Facts
• 40 Year-old Retirees - Age Discrimination in the News

Further recent information regarding the ill practices that high tech employers are using to substitute older workers with cheaper workforce are covered by Peter Gosselin in these ProPublica articles:

•  CUTTING ‘OLD HEADS’ AT IBM
• Federal Watchdog Launches Investigation of Age Bias at IBM

All the best.

--Dr.Flywheel

Quickie UpdateHousehold Income not Keeping up with Debt

Household Debt Jumps as 2017 Marks the Fifth Consecutive Year of Annual Growth

The Center for Microeconomics Data latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit reveals that total household debt reached a new peak in the fourth quarter of 2017, rising $193 billion to reach $13.15 trillion. Balances climbed 1.6 percent on mortgages, 0.7 percent on auto loans, 3.2 percent on credit cards, and 1.5 percent on student loans this past quarter.

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In conjunction with the content of my previous article (See: Are We Heading Towards the Next Financial Crisis?), this update is, to say the least, very disturbing.

This trend shown in the chart above is alarming due to its consistency since about 2013. Note that the non-housing component is rising at a much higher rate than the component mostly attributed to mortgages. Stagnation of salaries alongside increase in the accrual rates of personal credit card debt as well as of student debt are major factors in this picture.

Considering today's very tight job market, this is an opportunity for workers to demand higher pay rate. The lower corporate income tax on corporations should facilitate accommodation of worker's demand for raises. The question remains open, whether an equalization of household income will actually take place, as a result of the tax changes in fiscal year 2018. Will Corporate America share their bounty with American workers and contribute to true growth of our economy.

All the signs are pointing to a different directions though namely, driving personal debt to much higher limits by easing off bank regulations, all while simultaneously, raising interest rates.

A certain businessman who declared bankruptcy six times in a row, yet rose to high economic and political prominence, is proving that everything is possible in America. However, for most of us, experiencing bankruptcy, even once is far too much. 

See also:

• Household Debt Jumps as 2017 Marks the Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth Since Post-Recession Deleveraging
• Fed at Odds With Itself as It Eases Bank Rules and Raises Rates
• 10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS
• Income Inequality in the United States
• The Federal Reserve is already looking very different under Jerome Powell than it did under Janet Yellen

--Dr. Flywheel 

ADD Magic Cure - How the Economic Machine Works

My wife always blamed "Sesame Street" for our son's ADD problems. She kept claiming that  Sesame Street wired the brains of young kids who were watching the show, to expect stimulus and instant gratification in a series of five minute episodes. These expectations remained ingrained the brains of the show audience throughout their growing years and clashed with the monotonous, slow and disciplined, traditional school environment. So she claimed.

Rich vs. Poor - Social Tensions and Revolution

My kids are all grown up by now and able to support themselves very gracefully. However, I am always surprised by the fact that they are not at all interested in learning how our economy works. I am always frustrated with their lackadaisical attention when I try to explain to them how economic processes are working and how significant events are a result of pure economic cycles and do not, suddenly land out of the moon.

Four Ways to Reduce Debt Burden

Following the best tradition of American culture, I was constantly seeking to find the magic pill, that would alleviate my frustrations about communicating my messages about our economy to my kids. I believe that I finally found it. I am so excited about my revelations that I decided to share my finding with you.

United States Debt Burden Graph

The "magic pill" that I found is a wonderfully narrated and beautifully illustrated video presentation by investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist Ray Dalio. In this presentation Ray is able to explain all the basic principles that are driving the economies of the free world, in a simplified, yet not too simple way. As Albert Einstein was quoted to say:

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler

I highly recommend watching Ray Dalio's video presentation to all of you. Maybe you will be able to avoid the pain and the frustration of explaining essential information to your kids, by letting them watch.

The presentation can be found here:

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

All the best.

--Dr. Flywheel

Open Letter to Rep. Susan Bonamici

Honorable Congresswoman Bonamici,

With an estimated 70-80 million “baby boomers” entering retirement over the next 15 years, the U.S. economy will be forced to shift the tax paying burden and dig into the pockets of people who still work, to support the growing elderly population.

The subject that I am raising here is the common practice of age discrimination in employment. There is mounting evidence that employers are laying off employees who are older, under a variety of covers, while circumventing the Civil Rights laws of this country. Note that the definition of older in this case, is workers, who are 40 year old and older. This definition comes from our legal system, as represented by the Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) of 1967.

This issue of marking employees for potential layoff, once they reach the age of 40, is very serious. As a principal member of PDX-TIE.ORG, an organization that was originally created for the purpose of mutually supporting employees who were laid off from Intel Corp. since 2015. I know from my own personal experience, as well as from the testimonies of many of our members, that Intel Corp. discriminated against hundreds or perhaps thousands of older employees by either laying them off, or forcing them to retire. In fact I filed an official complaint with both the Oregon Bureau of Labor and Industry (BOLI) and the Federal agency in charge of enforcing fair employment practices, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). My charges are currently being investigated.

A recent article published in Pro Publica, a highly esteemed investigative journalism web site exposed many of the practices that IBM Corp. used to get rid of its older employees and either replace them with less costly younger workers, or shift their jobs overseas. The relevant Pro Publica article is entitled CUTTING ‘OLD HEADS’ AT IBM and the article content can be found at: https://features.propublica.org/ibm/ibm-age-discrimination-american-workers/

Many members of our mutual support organization, PDX-TIE.ORG, once they read the Pro Publica article, immediately found corollaries and parallels between the way in which they were treated by Intel Corp. and the various nefarious methods that Intel Corp. dealt with older employees.

Since I have dedicated the last 2-1/2 years of my life to researching the growing phenomenon of age discrimination in employment, I found that affected employees, have very little support to plead their case and seek justice, because the current system is rigged up in favor of employers. Among other things, employment attorneys refuse to take representation of age discrimination cases under a contingency fee arrangement. Consequently, there are very few such cases, brought into court. After all, older employees who lost their main source of income, following their employment termination, are in a very bad position to spend large amounts of money on attorney’s fees. My own personal experience and the testimony of many of my colleagues, support this fact.

There are many more issues regarding age discrimination in employment that I would be happy to share with you and your staff.

Note that while discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex and national origin is covered Under Title VII Protected Classes of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (Pub. L. 88-352) Vol 42(2000e), age discrimination in the work place is specifically covered under the separate scope of the ADEA.

Federal (and many state laws) provide protection (at least on the books) to certain recognized Protected Classes, defined by the law as: Race, Color, Religion or creed, National origin or ancestry, Gender (sex), and Age.Yet, we find very few cases of age discrimination brought into justice due to weaknesses in application of the law, as compared with other types of discrimination in employment.

Lately, issue of equal pay and sexual harassment came to light in the news and began to wake up the public to the fact that these practices are in fact much wider spread than the public were led to believe. I contend that age discrimination in employment is much wider than many people recognize. I noticed that non of your news letters, sent to your constituency ever mentioned age discrimination in employment as an action item to be corrected via both public education and legislative action. I hope that your office will attend to this issue at the high priority that it deserves.

Let us not forget that aging is unavoidable, whether a person is black or white, male or female, gay or straight. Regardless of gender based pay equality issues, once a person find themselves out of a job, pay equality becomes moot.

Thank you for listening.

--Ron Tsur

Does Intel Corp. PR Hype Truly Compensate For These Facts?

Under the leadersheep (...!) of Intel Corp. CEO Brian Krzanich, the number of PR conferences and press releases tripled or even quadrupled, compared to the number of same events under all of his predecessors. Although INTC stock has crossed the $50 mark in recent days, the question still remains, whether this stock price is truly based on fact, or perhaps the price inflation is just an artifact of the disproportionately overblown stock market bubble.

The jury is still out; however an interesting article in EE Times entitled:

Intel Needs New Strategies, ASAP

provides very significant facts, adding into the picture necessary to understand the reality of Intel Corp. business growth potential and its long term standing as a player in the highly competitive semiconductor market.

Read the full EE Times article, written by Sang-Yun Lee at this link:
https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1333043&print=yes

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All the best!

--Dr.Flywheel

Idiot GovernmentOregon State Idea of Engineering Is Not Keeping Up With The Times

It is a well known phenomenon that groups of professionals and specialized trade workers create a guild, with the intention of limiting competition and serving their own financial interest. Guilds do their best to retain the status quo and deliberately mount obstacles in the way of newcomers trying to enter a specific field of employment. This phenomenon existed for the last few centuries and served to enrich guild members very well, many times by recruiting governments to their aid. However, it is not clear if society at large is a beneficiary of this protectionist and restrictive concept and if restricting competition is a worthy cause for maintaining a viable economy in this day and age.

I was amazed to read an article in Motherboard entitled:
Man Fined $500 for Crime of Writing 'I Am An Engineer' in an Email to the Government.

I suggest for all of you to read the original article (see link below) and draw your own conclusions.

In summary, Mats Järlström, a private citizen with electrical engineering education, has written a well formed letter to his State Government. The letter specified facts about the shortcomings of traffic lights operations, providing important actionable information. Instead of responding to the good intentioned letter and fixing the problem, the State of Oregon, chose to pick on this Good Samaritan and nail him with a $500 fine for an obscure law violation. The State of Oregon claimed that Mats violated the law by declaring that he is an engineer, while he is not registered with the State.

Clearly, the State of Oregon is protecting the special interest of the old guilds through its actions and you can bet on entrenched interests doing their best to keep this situation forever. In these times, when innovation and science are open for all and new disciplines of engineering are opening up, the State of Oregon, in its official policy, is doing its best to keep us tied to the horse and buggy days and perhaps to the revival of the fur trapping and timber logging economy. Ancient regulations that do not keep up with the times, do not advance the interests of Oregon economy and will not create new jobs.

There is a good reason for the multi-billion budget deficit that the State of Oregon is facing for the next bi-annual budget, in spite of the high personal tax rates that the state treasury is collecting. The reason is the high cost of government. Part of this cost is apparently being spent on protecting the entrenched guilds constituency and the out of date policies of the pre-industrial revolution. For all of you who declare yourselves as "software engineer", or "electronics engineer", or "biochemical engineer", beware! The State of Oregon is coming to get you.

Read the original Motherboard article at: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/man-fined-dollar500-for-crime-of-writing-i-am-an-engineer-in-an-email-to-the-government

All the best.

--Dr. Flywheel

Intel Corp. Sponsored 10,168 H1B Visas In 2017

According to H1Bpay.com report, Intel Corp. sponsored 10,168 H1B visa applicants in 2017.

You can see the breakdown of the information, by State and location, at this link:

http://h1bpay.com/companies/Intel/cities

If you are interetsted in the subject, IEEE Spectrum magazine published the following article on the H1B visa program issue: Commentary: The H-1B Visa Problem as IEEE-USA Sees It.

--Dr. Flywheel

Your Personal Genetic Data Will Soon Be Available To Your Employer

If you believe that GINA (the 2008 genetic privacy and nondiscrimination law) protects your privacy and prevents your personal genetic information from being exposed to your employer's health maintenance plan, then this may no longer be the case.

H.R. 1313 was approved by a House committee on Wednesday, with all 22 Republicans supporting it and all 17 Democrats opposed.

Under provisions of H.R. 1313, your employer will be entitled to demand that you undergo genetic testing and the data collected will be made available to the employer.

Read the text of H.R. 1313 here:
https://www.congress.gov/115/bills/hr1313/BILLS-115hr1313ih.pdf

Considering that all data stored in databases could be easily breached, as evidenced from the many reports in the press, it is clear that H.R. 1313 represents a major regression in the struggle for maintaining privacy of personal information. As we have witnessed recently, even the NSA and CIA data has been compromised. In the near future, you might as well attach your DNA test report to your LinkedIn profile.

Fight to protect your rights before loosing them, altogether! Contact your U.S. Congress representative and tell them how you feel about H.R. 1313.

-- Dr. Flywheel

Are We Heading Towards the Next Financial Crisis?

A recent report by the New York branch of the Federal Reserve Board indicates that the total household debt balance is approaching the record peak of $12.68 Trillion, reached in Q3 of 2008. The Q4 2016 number is reported at $12.57 Trillion.

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The most alarming fact coming out of this report is that student loan 90+ day delinquency is rising sharply and consistently over the last two decades. The current student loan outstanding balance stands at approximately $1.3 Trillion. 

The following table (source: FRBNY), clearly shows that student loan default rate leads household debt-component delinquency by far. Note that FRBNY has warned in its previous reports that though the current delinquency rate is alarmingly high, the actual delinquency rate, as an indicator, is quite understated, since many student loans payback terms are deferred, while students attend school. Once the deferral period is reached, it is highly likely that we will notice a much more significant rise in the delinquency rate.

90+ day delinquency rates (known as "seriously delinquent")

CATEGORY1	Q3 2016	Q4 2016
MORTGAGE DEBT	1.6%	1.6%
HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT	2.0%	2.1%
STUDENT LOAN DEBT 2	10.9%	11.2%
AUTO LOAN DEBT	3.6%	3.8%
CREDIT CARD DEBT	7.1%	7.1%
ALL	3.3%	3.3%

1Delinquency rates are computed as the proportion of the total outstanding debt balance that is at least 90 days past due.

2As explained in a previous report, delinquency rates for student loans are likely to understate effective delinquency rates because about half of these loans are currently in deferment, in grace periods or in forbearance and therefore temporarily not in the repayment cycle. This implies that among loans in the repayment cycle delinquency rates are roughly twice as high.

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While students' inability to pay back their loans in a timely manner, affects their credit scores as well as spending ability, in many cases this delinquency affects the economic reality of their parents, when parents co-signed as guarantors on their children's loans. Unlike other types of debt, this type of situation has the "passing-the-buck" effect that binds multiple generations together into Indentured Servitude. The economic impact on households that have a high debt to income ratio could have very dire consequences, as both parents and their children are forced into default. Since our government precluded student loan debt  from personal bankruptcy protection, there is currently no mechanism that could prevent a debt crisis.

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Perhaps it is time to call out our government policies for a major review, regarding investment in education in general and the cost of higher education in particular. It is unclear why we have the most expensive higher education in the world, while other developed countries make higher education completely free for their citizens and permanent residents. With many countries in Europe (Germany, France, Scandinavian countries, etc.) offering free university education, at top universities (see references below), to foreign citizens (including U.S. citizens) are we going to begin shipping our young population abroad to seek debt-free destiny?

With hundreds of thousands of H1B visas granted to foreign workers every year and with even greater number of F1 visas granted to students who enter the U.S. workforce through "Optional Practical Training" (OPT) arrangements, U.S. Employers receive the short-term benefit of cheaper labor, all at at the entry level. However, by undercutting citizen children of the middle class in the U.S. from a chance to receive higher education, due to affordability issues, any short-term gain in worker supply will be replaced by a massive downfall and screaming shortages of well educated workforce in the long term.

Is it not the time to demand a major revision of the "for profit" approach in higher education? This system went overboard over the last 30 years, making college-level education un-affordable for so many people and enslaved those who received financial support for their education to a lifetime of debt. With the financial sector taking over every aspect of our lives and dominating the political system, are we going to sit at home and see this, once great country, going to the dump, while enriching the top 0.1 percent of the population?

Your comments are welcome.

--Dr.Flywheel

References:

• FRBNY Report Summary
• Full Report (PDF)
• Student Debt in America Has Hit a New Record
• Where Can You Study Abroad for Free?
• European countries offering free education
• Top 5 Countries Where Tuition is Free in 2017

September 12, 2017 Update:

Since the original date that this article was written the picture became even worse. The latest FRBNY report indicates a significant increase of ongoing consumer debt, as quoted below:

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• Aggregate household debt balances rose to a new peak in the second quarter of 2017. As of June 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.84 trillion, a $114 billion (0.9%) increase from the first quarter of 2017 (the original article reported 12.57 Trillion, or a change of 270 billion since Q4  2016). This increase put overall household debt $164 billion above its peak in the third quarter of 2008, and 15.1 percent above its trough in the second quarter of 2013.
• Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, which stood at $8.69 trillion as of June 30, saw a $64 billion uptick from the first quarter of 2017.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) were roughly flat, and now stand at $452 billion.
• Non-housing debt rose in the second quarter, with increases of $23 billion in auto loans and $20 billion in credit cards; student loan balances were roughly flat.

Reference:

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2017Q2.pdf

• 
  

2016 H1B Visa Petitions For Each State - Ranked by Number of Petitions

According to the Department of Home Security (DHS), H1B visas are granted to the following categories of applicants:

1. Specialty Occupations
2. DOD Researcher and Development Project Worker
3. Fashion Model

I must admit that I was not aware of the current "carnage" and screaming shortages in the fashion model market. Maybe your guess would be better than mine regarding the identity and the interests of the lobby groups who "helped" our government define the above categories; however, the current non-resident worker employment policy of the U.S. are practiced, based upon the H1B categories mentioned above.
(see: https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations-dod-cooperative-research-and-development-project-workers-and-fashion-models).

The table below lists the number of H1B visa petitions submitted by US employers in fiscal year 2016, organized by State rank. The Number of LCA column reflects the number of Labor Condition Application(LCA) filed for H1B Visas. . This number includes new, renewed and transferred LCAs. 

Note that in some cases the visa sponsors (employers) specify a salary range, instead of a single numerical salary value. In such case the Average Salary column reflects the average proffered salary on the LCA application or the attached Form 9035. 

Click on the embedded links to get further breakdown of the information (Courtesy of:  http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2017-H1B-Visa-Category.aspx?T=WS)

Rank	Work State	Number of LCA *	Average Salary
1	California	119,744	$100,542
2	Texas	68,460	$79,940
3	New York	58,660	$92,567
4	New Jersey	48,365	$78,908
5	Illinois	35,177	$81,842
6	Massachusetts	24,887	$87,638
7	Georgia	24,859	$79,504
8	Pennsylvania	23,376	$84,692
9	Washington	23,146	$102,779
10	Michigan	20,966	$77,545
11	Florida	20,848	$78,039
12	Virginia	18,902	$81,852
13	North Carolina	18,845	$82,486
14	Ohio	16,342	$80,292
15	Maryland	10,739	$81,851
16	Connecticut	10,034	$86,838
17	Minnesota	9,938	$83,414
18	Arizona	9,732	$83,345
19	Missouri	7,971	$78,011
20	Wisconsin	7,046	$82,666
21	Colorado	6,501	$85,639
22	Indiana	6,399	$81,569
23	Tennessee	5,652	$79,330
24	Oregon	4,718	$86,092
25	District of Columbia	4,134	$86,293
26	Delaware	3,521	$84,892
27	Arkansas	3,406	$78,780
28	South Carolina	2,952	$78,275
29	Iowa	2,940	$83,365
30	Utah	2,887	$79,034
31	Kansas	2,768	$84,216
32	Kentucky	2,624	$83,644
33	Rhode Island	2,457	$86,683
34	Louisiana	2,191	$88,751
35	Alabama	2,053	$80,989
36	Oklahoma	2,015	$74,551
37	Nebraska	2,014	$83,223
38	New Hampshire	1,906	$84,485
39	Nevada	1,396	$86,596
40	New Mexico	1,039	$95,587
41	Idaho	887	$79,349
42	Mississippi	839	$97,002
43	Maine	687	$104,311
44	West Virginia	617	$114,471
45	Hawaii	557	$77,837
46	North Dakota	544	$103,572
47	Vermont	366	$81,878
48	South Dakota	347	$84,426
49	Alaska	201	$84,652
50	Montana	191	$88,029
51	Wyoming	137	$102,661

Your comments are welcome.

--Dr. Flywheel

Coal Miners, H1B Visa, George Orwell and Alternative Facts

Bringing jobs to states like Pennsylvania and finding alternative sources of income for coal miners who lost their jobs was a hot topic in the last Presidential Elections campaign. Some say that the popular climate of feeling disenfranchised from the grand economy of the U.S. is what moved voters to bring about the unconventional results of the recent election. I feel deep sympathy with our coal miners. For many generations their hard work yielded the abundant supply of fuel that was necessary to support the growing energy needs of the U.S. economy. They worked relentlessly in a harsh and dirty environment to give us cheap steel and electricity. Though it took a lot of struggle through the years, coal miners managed to organize and receive quite decent compensation compared to workers in other sectors of the U.S. economy--an average of $80,000/year (see more detailed information at: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Industry=Coal_Mining/Salary). The loss of these better-than-average salaries must be devastating to coal miners families who enjoyed a good standard of living for the last 30 years. However, the world did not stand still. As the natural gas industry began major growth throughout the 21st  century, natural gas began displacing coal as the major source of energy, due to its abundance, low price, ease of distribution and cleaner environmental footprint. This trend in today's economy cannot be reversed. Coal miners did not loose their jobs to offshore outsourcing--our Capitalist economy simply drove us to consume what we perceive to be the cheaper alternative.
See:

• There are now twice as many solar jobs as coal jobs in the US
• Who's Winning The Battle To Replace Coal?
• Natural gas expected to surpass coal in mix of fuel used for U.S. power generation in 2016

There are several things we need to remember about the coal industry though:

1. The industrial revolution would have had trouble moving forward without coal as its main source of energy.
2. Mine owners looked at their employees as both a disposable and replaceable resource and had no inclination to share their wealth with employees until organized labor came onto the scene.
3. Two social phenomena that had their roots in the mining industry: the Company Store and the Indentured servant practice, would be considered unacceptable in today's democratic society, though they prevailed until the second half of the 20th Century. 

West Virginia Coal Mine - 1908

Back to present time in the 21st Century, it seems that the corporate world never gave in, regarding the reestablishment of "Indentured Servitude", and major corporations are doing their best to turn history around.

The H1B visa program allows U.S. employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. In 2014 the total number of H1B visa approved in the U.S. was 315,857 (124,326 initial stay approvals and 191,531 continuation approvals). Today, in early 2017, I did not find exact numbers going beyond 2014, the current numbers could very well be either similar, or much higher.

2017 Update: Since the original article was written, we retrieved the following H1B visa applications issued for subsequent years. The reported numbers are as follows:  (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa)

2015   315,387 Applications

2016   345,262 Applications

2017   365,682  Applications

Interestingly, the Senate Judiciary Committee criticized the H1B program on its very first merit. In 2015 Senator Chuck Grassley (R) of Iowa said:

The program was intended to serve employers who could not find the skilled workers they needed in the United States. Most people believe that employers are supposed to recruit Americans before they petition for an H-1B worker. Yet, under the law, most employers are not required to prove to the Department of Labor that they tried to find an American to fill the job first. And, if there is an equally or even better qualified U.S. worker available, the company does not have to offer him or her the job. Over the years the program has become a government-assisted way for employers to bring in cheaper foreign labor, and now it appears these foreign workers take over – rather than complement – the U.S. workforce


For those of us who are over 40 years of age, an important fact quoted from the Wikipedia article highlights the age discrimination in employment aspect of the H-1B program:

Age discrimination
In Fiscal Year 2014, 72% of H-1B holders were between the ages of 25 and 34, according to the USCIS "Characteristics of Specialty Occupation Workers (H-1B): Fiscal Year 2014", Table 5 of the report denotes that only 3,592 of the 315,857 H-1B visas were approved for workers over the age of 50. Computerworld has reported on H-1B age discrimination within the program, and in the case against Disney World's H-1B replacement tactic, age discrimination is an aspect of 2015 court filings.

The approximately 1200 Intel employees who were laid off by Intel Corp. in 2015 and the 12,000 employees whose employment with Intel corp. was terminated in 2016 probably feel that there is a direct connection between the H-1B hiring practices and the company's layoff practices. Replacing older employees, whose salaries are relatively high compared with new and inexperienced employees is one way of reducing the cost of labor. Since H-1B employee salaries are even lower than those of domestic employees, the Corporation is happy to reap the rewards. From Intel Corp. 10-Q filings we can deduce that the company replaced laid-off workers with new and younger ones, since the overall number of employees reported on these government mandated reports seems to remain almost the same. Regarding the age discrimination aspect of Intel Corp. layoffs, we have statistical evidence that points to direct correlation between an employee's age and his or her probability to be selected for layoff (see: http://www.pdx-tie.org/2016/08/useful-diagrams-for-explaining-intel.html).

Throughout the Obama administration years, no one paid attention to the merits of the H-1B visa program. However, nowadays when President Trump is criticizing the H-1B visa program and declares that U.S. companies must hire U.S. Citizens and permanent residents first, all hell breaks loose in the "high tech" sector and CEO's who were all jazzed up about Trump's suggestion of corporate tax cuts, suddenly declare him the enemy.

Specifically regarding Intel Corp., it is unclear for me how the company can declare that almost 16,000 employees laid off over the last few years, are banned from being reemployed for life, all while driving a campaign demanding to increase the number of H-1B visa recipients that it would like to sponsor.

One of the issues that without a doubt is very tempting to large corporations, is the fact that H-1B employees are in fact indentured servants. These employees are willing to work for lower than market rate compensation and have complete dependence on their sponsor for staying in the U.S. This practice is only a few steps away from the old coal mining days of the U.S. economy, when mine owners kept armed gangs of hired thugs to keep the miners in check and the Company Store was the only place where miners could find food.

English author Eric Arthur Blair, under the pen name George Orwell published "Nineteen Eighty Four" (also known as "1984") back in 1949. Though Orwell wrote other popular books, like "Animal Farm" and several collections of essays, like "Shooting an Elephant" and "Inside a Whale", the "1984" novel remained iconic in its relevance for social commentary, throughout this day. Certain terms from the book ("big brother", "doublethink", "doublespeak", "newspeak"), became regular metaphoric expressions in the English language.

George Orwell, the Sequel?

 

"1984" is a Sci-Fi novel that attempts to warn us about the future of unintended consequences. Here is a short summary form Wikipedia: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four)

The novel is set in Airstrip One (formerly known as Great Britain), a province of the superstate Oceania in a world of perpetual war, omnipresent government surveillance, and public manipulation. The superstate and its residents are dictated to by a political regime euphemistically named English Socialism, shortened to "Ingsoc" in Newspeak, the government's invented language. The superstate is under the control of the privileged elite of the Inner Party, a party and government that persecutes individualism and independent thinking as "thoughtcrime", which is enforced by the "Thought Police".

I remember reading the famous George Orwell novel in school, during the mid 1960s. At the time, 1984 looked like the distant future and the story line seemed, like many other Sci-Fi books that I read at the time--impressive, yet too wild to believe.

In 1984, during the first term of the Reagan administration, some people commented that the prophecy of George Orwell failed to deliver. Perhaps they took the title of the book too literally. However, the invasion of the tiny island of Grenada by combined action of all branches of the almighty U.S. military (Seeking glory after Vietnam?) as well as the Iran-Contra affair (involving the discovery of clandestine actions of the CIA in Latin America and subsequent cover-up by the president's staff), reminded all of us of the danger in letting government run unchecked.

The aftermath of the Marines Barracks bombing in Beirut, Lebanon
(click on image to enlarge)

 [Note: Nowadays there is little doubt that the Grenada Invasion took place because President Reagan needed a face saving action in the form of  "A lovely little war" after the Marines barracks in Beirut, Lebanon were bombed and 241 U.S. Marines lost their lives, on 10/23/1983. The Grenada Invasion took place on 10/25/1983, two days later.]

The Grenada Invasion Operations Map
(click on image to enlarge)

Many people's lives would have been spared if we gave proper attention to the Reagan Administration breaches of government-run-amok with the Iran Contra Affair. If Reagan would have been impeached for his actions in the Iran-Contra conspiracy, it is very likely that George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq following 9-11 and the complete destabilization of the Middle East resulting from that action would have not consequently taken place.

The fact that the U.S. stands alone among all developed nations, lacking affordable medical healthcare to serve its whole population, indicates where national priorities stand in the minds of those who control government. Lack of affordable Nation-wide medical insurance, prominently appears in sharp contrast to the more than 340 military bases and installations that the U.S. keeps around the world. Most of these facilities are remnants of the U.S. military deployment at the end of WW-II and serve doubtful purposes in this day and age. It is likely that if we followed the money trail, we will discover some fascinating facts about how our tax dollars are being spent. To hear President Trump talking about "Making America Great Again" by pledging to increase military spending, while vowing to repeal the Affordable Care Act, seems like a major priority screw-up. Are we really better off as a nation, killing more people abroad, than taking care of the folks here, at home?

President Trump's continued apocalyptic declarations of "carnage" in the U.S., streets and militant attitude towards the rest of the world indicate that he is intent on consolidating presidential powers by creating a "State of Emergency" in which constitutional rights will be suspended. The president's dystopian view of the world seems to be taken directly from Orwell's "1984", even when careful fact checking completely contradicts almost all of his assertions. Relying of "Alternative Facts" will lead to "Alternative Reality", which will, without a doubt, bring in many unintended consequences for doubtful gain. It is not clear to me how the United States of America would be better off bringing on the Apocalypse, instead of focusing on leveling the playing field for workers and providing affordable healthcare to the general population.

Kellyanne Conway is President Donald Trump's campaign manager and will be remembered in history for coining the term "alternative facts". Among her famous recent creations is the "Bowling Green Massacre", a fictitious terrorist act that actually never took place on U.S. soil
(see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/02/06/kellyanne-conways-bowling-green-massacre-wasnt-a-slip-of-the-tongue-shes-said-it-before/?utm_term=.48a575866bd2 )

Conway insists that this (fictitious) incident provided reason for President Trump's executive order to ban entrance visas from passengers who come from seven predominately Muslim countries. This is not the only time that Conway has fabricated facts. She continues to behave as if she is participating in a high school debate and high rhetoric is replacement to substance. Generally, it seems that Conway's world is free of consequences and that her purpose in life is to spill words into the air in an attempt to steal all the oxygen in the room. Conway's style of expression definitely qualifies as Orwellian "newspeak". As someone once told me, "too many people confuse their talent for the success of the company". The success of Conway's campaign has nothing to do with her talent--it has to do with betrayal of the plebiscite by the political establishment, on the right and the left. With her track record of lies, what is the reason that Conway is still being interviewed by journalists? If they really care about her they should run a fundraiser to pay for her therapy sessions.

Overreaching executive powers are dangerous and have led us to very costly avenues. Presidents that came from either the right or the left continued to demand increasingly more power for their jurisdiction. With all the outcry over the actions of the Bush administration, President Obama inflicted major blows on personal privacy and expanded the powers of government agencies to go after individuals and even justified extrajudicial killings of American citizens. While the Obama administration and the U.S. Congress acted mostly behind the scene, the Trump administration already declared it intention to double on the deeds of its predecessor with blood thirsty overt declarations of its intent to consolidate power in the executive branch and threaten other world countries.

Political party loyalties make people do things that they would never dream doing, even when the party seems to work against their best interests. Rebelling against the perceived establishment makes people do things that they would have never dream doing, sometimes to the point of masochism. Is there a way to advance the collective cause without breaking the system? I will be happy to hear your ideas.

I personally question if there is any sense in maintaining the current political parties in the U.S. and if the population is actually being served by either one of the two dominant parties. It seems like too many special interests groups are intent on keeping the current political system rigged to advance their narrow benefit. Group representation is being sold to the highest bidder, while the agents reap all the benefits. You may be happy to know that the underlying problem for this situation has been researched and has an official name. It is known as the Principal-Agent Conflict (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem).

Competition seems to be too ingrained in Americans' minds as the only way to advance through life and cooperation always seems to be an inferior choice. For one reason or the other, there is a popular trend to simplify everything in social space into the terms of a football game--where only one team can win, even if the win does not last, or is only symbolic.

On the other hand we also see signs of social trend reversals--perhaps a counter-culture. Young people are more willing to share and participate in community-based endeavors and invest their time and money for what they perceive is a collective gain. There is evidence of the "sharing economy" and the many ideas that it can foster, in spite of their complexity, has a potential of expanding the economy beyond where the capitalistic system can reach. I do not believe that the economic models are mutually exclusive. There is plenty of space for cooperation and competition to coexist, as long as the outcome of these endeavors is to the benefit of the general population.

I see the writing on the wall. If money remains in politics, we are all doomed. Perhaps it is time to go to the streets and revive the unity of the nation, not by destroying property and harming people whom you do not agree with, but by voicing the will of the people in a direct and non equivocal way. Apathy will not bring a better quality of life and prosperity for our kids.

--Dr. Flywheel